‘We are hollowing out our industrial base.’ — Avery Shenfeld, CIBC economist.
CIBC calls for loonie intervention
‘Go pick on some other currency,’ CIBC economist Shenfeld says
A high-profile Canadian economist has called on the Bank of Canada to use its reserves to defend the Canadian dollar against speculation in extreme cases.
In a report released Tuesday, Avery Shenfeld of CIBC World Markets said the central bank should intervene to keep the exchange rate stable and to protect Canadian manufacturers.
“Canada could consider what might be called a bounded float,” Shenfeld said.
Articles like these are rather simplistic hogwash driven by one of the worst run banks in Canada — the CIBC.
They do not point out that our industrial base has continuously been “hollowed out” for at least 20 years now since Canada entered so called free trade agreements with slave labor countries. Is it any wonder why manufacturers and companies are relocating to countries where they work for pennies on the dollar? It should be illegal and a tariff put in place on these countries (ie. China) dumping their goods on our markets. How long will it be that these countries start to thwart the savior-touted service economy which produces nothing but wealth redistribution?
The Canadian central bank tried to intervene when the loonie was diving and this caused more panic in the market and further decline.If word surfaced that the central bank was buying American bonds to drive down the dollar most traders would realise the futility of this action and buy more Canadian bonds. Currency market intervention only works when a group of central bankers work in concert and secrecy. It is unlikely that the Americans and British Banks would join forces to deflate the Canadian dollar.
If interest rates are at zero then other levers have to be pulled to increase inflation. Loose monetary policy instead of tight monetary policy will soon deflate the dollar. Governor Carney will act appropriately. We do not need the CIBC to dictate monetary policy.
The U.S. dollar is in fact free falling and so is the price of oil. Look at the price of gold as it is mainly fear driven. At some point in the not to distant future oil will turn and run through the roof again,and that will probably be this winter — and it will REALLY run this time!
Gold will not sustain the present price and it too will suffer a drastic fall. The U.S. dollar for all intents and purposes, is worthless and that will only continue. The Americans will just print more money. It would appear the U.S. economy has finally crashed and burned, as has been predicted for years and rightly so. Here are two suggestions to cover your assets: buy silver and wait for gold to pull back.
After that, it is anyones guess, but the economic disaster we just came through will be chicken feed compared to the next mess. That too will come, sooner than later. Always remember that cash is king!
He recommended the central bank buy U.S. dollars during times when speculation is causing a sharp rise in the loonie’s value.
“By intervening only at extremes, the central bank could help chase away speculative flows that take the currency, in its considered judgment, beyond fundamentally driven levels.”
Shenfeld told the CBC’s The Lang and O’Leary Exchange, that essentially, the central bank should step into the market to sell Canadian dollars in exchange for U.S. dollars to try to weaken the loonie by a few cents.
Interest rates a blunt instrument
Shenfeld said the bank’s tendency since 1988 not to intervene directly and instead rely on interest-rate levels means rates might stay low longer than would otherwise be the case. He said relying on interest rates alone creates problems.
“In the real world, the mix of output also matters,” Shenfeld wrote. “Putting people into larger houses because mortgage rates are lower than otherwise generates economic output in the construction industry and leaves the economy with a larger stock of housing. But if the loonie is overvalued for a few years, we may be sacrificing business plants and equipment on the altar of a strong currency.”
Plants that close because they are unprofitable at current exchange rates might permanently relocate elsewhere.
“They won’t suddenly come back if currency later cheapens,” Shenfeld said. “We are hollowing out our industrial base by letting speculative foreign exchange market forces, in effect, dictate the mix of monetary conditions.”
Full article from the CBC.
Canada’s economy long way from recovery: report
Canada’s economy is a long way from recovery, and more public investment will be key to getting there, says a new report by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
“I don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel … and our high dollar is making it worse,” said Jim Stanford, co-author of the report and an economist with the Canadian Auto Workers.
The private sector is still shrinking, most new jobs are being created in the public sector and the economy may require billions more in government stimulus, according to the report released Thursday in Ottawa.
“So far we’ve seen continued decline in exports, continued decline in business capital spending,” Stanford said. “Across the private sector as a whole, there’s no source of new growth.
“The only engine for Canada’s expansion … has been government and that isn’t enough to drive the whole economy forward in a recovery situation.”