Get rid of your mortgage, loans, because interest rates set to rise

Get rid of your mortgage, loans, because interest rates set to rise

Get rid of your loans, guys and gals, because we are going into a high interest rate period. Very high. It will be the equivalent of going into the double digit interest rates we had in the 80s where many people threw their house keys at the bank and we had record numbers of ba

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E-cigarettes save lives, money

E-cigarettes save lives, money

"We know that cigarettes have thousands of chemicals in them and we know that they are killing us. They have been for over a hundred years. So now, the e-cig industry comes along with only one or two chemicals in their mixture and people are freaking out over these as well. Whe

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US inches closer to big bank charges

US inches closer to big bank charges

Federal prosecutors are nearing criminal charges against some of the world’s biggest banks, according to lawyers briefed on the matter, a development that could produce the first guilty plea from a major bank in more than two decades. In doing so, prosecutors are confronting

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Canada’s home sales top predictions; why a real estate crash is inevitable

Canada’s home sales top predictions; why a real estate crash is inevitable

“The assurance of relatively low borrowing costs has likely given home buyers confidence while rising home values have kept new listings at a healthy level. Stable employment has provided some assurance to owners and buyers alike.” Our website is back after many months of

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Comparing today’s recession/depression to the 1980 recession

Comparing today's recession/depression to the 1980 recession

"Much like today, Americans were concerned not only with high unemployment but increasing budget deficits in the early 1980s. A September 1983 Gallup poll found that three-fourths of the public agreed that the federal government's budget deficit was a great threat (42%) or some

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Why savers are getting screwed

Why savers are getting screwed

"Without the intervention of economic policymakers, interest rates would be naturally higher. That would increase the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers, but there would be some offsetting economic benefits. Savers are getting screwed by the current monetary policy

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Geithner admits USA bankrupt to US Senate

Geithner admits USA bankrupt to US Senate

"Never in our history has Congress failed to increase the debt limit when necessary. Failure to raise the limit would precipitate a default by the United States. Default would effectively impose a significant and long-lasting tax on all Americans and all American businesses

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World economies on verge of currency revaluations to deal with debt

World economies on verge of currency revaluations to deal with debt

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford Basically what the world central banks are doing is increasing their money by devaluin

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Is Obama the next Mugabe of Zimbabwe?

Is Obama the next Mugabe of Zimbabwe?

"America, Britain, Japan, Germany, France, Sweden, Holland, Norway, Canada and Australia make up the Fishmongers Group and their meeting on Tuesday will deliberate on the state of the inclusive government, debt relief, public finance administration and the controversial economi

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US raiding foreign countries with dollars, not soldiers

US raiding foreign countries with dollars, not soldiers

""The United States is going to China and saying: we want you to commit economic suicide, just like Japan did. We want you to follow the same thing: we want you to revalue your currency, we want you to squeeze your companies, we want you to go bankrupt,” says Michael Hudson,

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FDIC wants your retirement cash to save banks: Bloomberg

FDIC wants your retirement cash to save banks: Bloomberg

“The FDIC is constantly looking at structures where we can get the greatest opportunity to tap into capital that we have not had the success reaching through previous disposition methods,” FDIC spokeswoman Michele Heller said in an e-mailed statement. “We welcome and work

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Canadian government admits recovery never happened

Canadian government admits recovery never happened

“Not only did their stimulus fail to create the jobs of tomorrow, it also failed to protect the jobs of today,” Scott Brison, the opposition Liberal Party’s spokesman for finance issues, said by telephone. "Most of us were shaking our heads in disbelief early last year w

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Content By: The Coming Depression Editorial Staff (dates cited below)
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tortoise and hare

“The Dow is up and many economists see an end to the recession. Try telling that to the rising ranks of those losing their jobs and houses.” — Moira Herbst

Investors should not confuse the economy with the stock market, if they both usually follow similar trends. Today, however, the economy and stock markets have become completely disconnected.

The U.S. dollar is in structural decline since they have used almost every means to fight against deflation. They have excesses in the retail, manufacturing, real estate, and, more ominously, employment. Based on the technique “jobless recoveries,” the U.S. will spend another two years with over 400,000 registered unemployed, and will not see a drop in unemployment below 9% until the end of 2011. This means that much of the pain that has not been digested.

The excesses of the credit bubble will be a drag on the economy of at least two more years, yet the stock market rallied because the cost reduction benefits stimulated. It seems that investors are trapped in two camps who do not speak to each other (like debate on the reform of health care): The bulls believe that the sun rises, and we will improve our way out of Debt, unemployment, and structural excess of bubbles past. Bears do not think we can solve the credit bubble with another bubble. Indeed, it does not cure a drunkard in giving him another drink.

The bulls and bears are talking past each other, not each other. It allows a dynamic rather strange market, where the bearish arguments do not count – until they do. Then, the bearish arguments will be the only thing that matters.

Can Main Street Catch Up with Wall Street?
By Moira Herbst

On the one hand, the Dow Jones industrial average once again danced around 10,000 last week. Earnings of Caterpillar (CAT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) far exceeded expectations. If U.S. gross domestic product rebounds as expected on Oct. 29 and turns positive for the first time in 15 months, it would confirm that the recession ended in the third quarter, at least statistically.

Meanwhile, back on Main Street U.S.A., the picture is drastically different. Unemployment has doubled in a year, to 9.8% in September, and there are about six unemployed Americans for every job opening. Home foreclosure-related filings—including default notices, foreclosure auctions, and bank repossessions—are on pace to reach about 3.5 million this year, up from more than 2.3 million last year.

Gap Between Leading, Lagging Indicators

It’s normal for Wall Street to recover more quickly than the job market in the wake of a recession. Figures like stock prices and the difference between short- and long-term borrowing costs are known as “leading indicators” because they tend to be among the first to signal a recovery. Unemployment and consumer credit volumes fit into the “lagging indicators” category that bounce back afterward.

What’s different in this recovery is the extent to which the leading indicators are soaring ahead of the lagging ones. Wall Street cheered on Oct. 22 when the Conference Board’s measure of the economic outlook for the next three to six months rose a greater-than-expected 1%. But the same report saw the gauge of lagging indicators fall 0.3%.

The Real Economy and the False One
By Cynicus Economicus

Do you remember the stress tests for the banking system in the US? They were the subject of negotiations by the banks with regards to the outcomes, making them remarkably relaxed stress tests. There was an assumption in the stress tests for an unemployment rate of 8.9% (a curiously precise figure), and 10.3% in 2010. The unemployment rate had already reached 9.8% in September, with expectations of further rises. In other words, the worse case scenario was not indeed the worse case scenario.

Despite this, it appears that business as usual is continuing in the world of banking. When we consider that the stress tests were heavily negotiated and the worse case scenarios are being broken, this is a puzzle.

The real economy is, as you would expect, having an impact upon the banks. Bank of America, the second largest lender against credit cards is reporting massive losses on their lending, and bank failures continue at a shocking pace (106 so far this year). And then there is the exploding numbers of mortgage foreclosures, including prime loans, such that foreclosure counsellors are being deluged with requests for assistance. Commercial real estate loans in default have now reached about 6% of all loans. Small and medium size businesses are seeing continuing high levels of arrears on loans, with those that are moderately delinquent increasing (but a tiny fall in the numbers that are severely delinquent).

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