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8 million jobs lost, many forever

town abandoned deindustrialization

The nation’s working-age population grows by about 150,000 people a month. So the hole is deeper than it looks. It would take the creation of 10.6 million jobs immediately for the same percentage of the population to be working as was the case three years ago.”

First off, true unemployment is far higher then reported. Of those who are no longer counted on average after 15 months are people who simply ran out if UI benefits, slipped on welfare, vast numbers took part time jobs often at much lower pay. Long tenured workers after loosing their jobs, those over 50 almost always end up without jobs longer and seldom find jobs reasonably matching ones they lost. They may be educated with degrees, but even when they obtain more skills upgrading, there is simply not enough jobs offered to this age group. And you are right, I do not expect revolt just yet, but as history shows, prolonged discontent eventually gets people vocal.

In Does Washington care about unemployment? economist Brad DeLong asks the question,

In 1983, Ronald Reagan’s Washington regarded high unemployment as a national emergency. Today, with unemployment kissing 10 percent, Barack Obama’s Washington scarcely seems perturbed. Why?

In 1983, when unemployment hit 10.5%, Washington was in a panic and it was considered a “genuine national emergency.” Unemployment is just about as high today. But, DeLong points out, “Yet, unlike 1983, there is no sense of urgency in Washington. … Instead, deliberations within the Federal Open Market Committee appear preoccupied with how best to apply the brakes.”

He says that D.C. insiders he knows tell him to calm down, that things are getting better. He thinks the problem is something else.

But whenever I wander the halls of Washington these days, I can’t help but think that something else is going on—that a deep and wide gulf has grown between the economic hardships of Americans and the seeming incomprehension, or indifference, of courtiers in the imperial city.Have decades of widening wealth inequality created a chattering class of reporters, pundits and lobbyists who’ve lost their connection to mainstream America? Has the collapse of the union movement removed not only labor’s political muscle but its beating heart from the consciousness of the powerful? Has this recession, which has reduced hiring more than it has increased layoffs, left the kind of people who converse with the powerful in Washington secure in their jobs and thus communicating calm while the unemployed are engulfed in panic? Are we passively watching an unrepresented underclass of the long-term unemployed created before our eyes?

The price of Treasury bonds is up, which means demand is high — and that investors are not-at-all worried about our deficit. But D.C. is focused on reducing the deficit. This reflects more concern for the interests of the wealthy of Wall Street than of the working people on Main Street. This division is similar to the division between those who wanted more money circulating in the 1890, and were calling for us to move from a gold standard to a bimetal gold/silver standard so there could be more money circulating.

If they dare to come out in the open field and defend the gold standard as a good thing, we shall fight them to the uttermost, having behind us the producing masses of the nation and the world. Having behind us the commercial interests and the laboring interests and all the toiling masses, we shall answer their demands for a gold standard by saying to them, you shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.

But crucifying the jobless on cross of stock certificates is OK?

The way to reduce the deficits is invest in the economy and to get people working again. Source

us economy 2008 composition
service sector unsustainable

Just how many jobs were lost in the past 3 years?

The recession killed off 7.9 million jobs. It’s increasingly likely that many will never come back.

The government jobs report issued Friday shows that businesses have slowed their pace of hiring to a relative trickle.

“The job losses during the Great Recession were so off the chart, that even though we’ve gained about 600,000 private sector jobs back, we’ve got nearly 8 million jobs to go,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Excluding temporary Census workers, the economy has added fewer than 100,000 jobs a month this year — a much faster and stronger jobs recovery than occurred following the last two recessions in 2001 and 1991.

But even if that pace of hiring were to double immediately, it would take until 2013 to recapture the lost jobs. And the labor market very likely doesn’t have years before it gets hit with the shock of the inevitable next economic downturn.

“It’s virtually certain that the next recession will come before the job market has healed from the last recession,” said Achuthan. (Read ‘Stimulus: The big bang is over’)

More frequent recessions: Despite signs of slowing economic growth, Achuthan is not predicting that the U.S. economy is about to fall into another downturn later this year. Source

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