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The real unemployment rate is scarier than thought

unemployed empty pockets

“don’t forget the difference between U3 (steady at 9.7%), U6 (rose to 16.9%) or even John Williams’ SGS Alternate, which presumable has stayed near 22%. + 162,000 may be the best number in three years”

Statistics rarely show the truth of reality. They can be twisted and manipulated as however the person using them wants. If they hire more people to take of even more people out of work they can make the numbers look even healthier. The only good news we’ll hear now is when we start hearing about new manufacturing plants opening up. And why won’t that happen? Because every damn industry has sent all their tooling machinery to plants they’ve opened up in China, Taiwan, Singapore, or any one of those countries.

So now they have all our good manufactured machinery and we’re just going to end up with crap machines that break down all the time. Who do you think got the bad end of that stick? China’s probably laughing now.

Don’t believe any of these government numbers. As far as government statistics are concerned, they contain little truth. It’s funny how unemployment numbers are “seasonally adjusted” yet all employment numbers are counted, even the short term census jobs. The governments don’t really care about employment at all. The care about how they will look come election time. They don’t want their stimulus spending to be seen as a total failure.

for every 1 job gained 5 lost

Unemployment The Inconvenient Truth

Automatic Earth Blog April 4 2010

Ilargi: OK, so the BLS Establishment Survey Data say that in March, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 (quite a bit less than the consensus among “experts”). Not a terribly reliable or important number, if you ask me, but of course people will milk it for what they can. What strikes me is a number in the Household Survey Data:

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) increased by 414,000 over the month to 6.5 million.

That’s almost 7% in one month, and that is downright scary. Of course, we’ve talked about this till the cows were home, fed, bathed, and left the barn again, but it still bears repeating that discussing US employment, for instance the initial jobless claims data, has become a futile exercise, if not an outright affront to the people, if the EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) numbers are not included.

It may make for a nice feel-good story to claim that less people have jumped onto the front of the wagon, but it’s simply deceitful not to mention the number that have fallen off the back. Over 44% of jobless Americans are now unemployed for more than 27 weeks. Hence, the EUC component of the stats, the by now 6.5 million who largely depend on the emergency money Congress just last week refused to extend, is now probably the most important segment of the unemployment numbers, or at least should be if the fudging would end. At present, it’s exceedingly hard to figure out where they show up in the various sets of supplied data. Get the rest of the story from Automatic Earth

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