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sunshine silver bars bullion

Based on the supply and demand situation of silver, it’s only a question of time when a silver shortage will come. Nobody can predict exactly when this is going to happen, but we have more and more signs that those who control the price of silver are sweating to balance the supply.

The biggest question I have is, will the shorts be successful to cover their short position on time? Right now the CFTC seems to want to force all the manipulators to get in line by making them obey new rules of position limits, but I feel that the banks who are the big shorts will be exempt. Mr. Butler thinks that the CFTC will do the right thing, but I am skeptical. We argue about this a lot, as we both have strong opinions.

If the banks will not be forced to cover their short positions, only a true shortage in silver will bring the right price. Be prepared for that to happen. How much will silver be worth in a shortage situation? It’s tricky to calculate, because a real shortage has never happened in silver history. But it is how you must think. My own thoughts go back to what some things cost during and after World War II in Europe. When there is not enough of something is when you see real crazy prices.

So I will give you my calculation. It will be a gradual explosion of prices and slowly the users and the new investors will eat up the world visible silver, which today is around 500 million ounces. In my calculation the first 100 million ounces of visible silver will disappear at a price of $60 to $100 an ounce. The second 100 million ounces will disappear by $250, and the third 100 million ounces will disappear between $250 and the price of gold ounce for ounce.

We will be left with 200 million ounces of silver which the owners will be not taking profits on at any price. The bullion in private hands I calculate will be the first to take profits, but Silver Eagle holders will hold for the long run. I still believe that Silver Eagles will do the best investment-wise and I will not be surprised that at one point the Eagle price will trade much higher than the price of silver in a bubble mania.

I am a fanatic silver believer and what I write is only my private belief. There are not many believers in silver. Just look at CNBC, the newspapers, other media, and gold investors. Hardly ever a good word on silver. Silver for them is a forgotten metal. One day they will be shocked when the shortage of silver will come and the price will go up and then gold will be a forgotten sister. There is more gold in the world than silver, so parity in prices is a must.

Original article found at Silver Bear Cafe The Silver Shortage Will Come

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This entry was posted on Friday, October 2nd, 2009 at 1:31 am and is filed under Survival Tips. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

2 Comments

  1. January 25, 2011 @ 12:29 pm


    Can it be that the drop in precious metals is the precursor to the stock market crash?

    Look at the trends in 2008. Metals go down before the market.

    Posted by John Doe
  2. January 25, 2011 @ 12:45 pm


    look for a massive sell off in the stock market as well as in the precious metals shares and metals in general. Silver will be treated as a base metal and will plunge precipitously as in 2008, which it is now perfectly set up to do.

    Posted by Jason

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