US, world headed for 25 year depression: Jim Rickards

US, world headed for 25 year depression: Jim Rickards

“When I use the phrase 25 year depression, it sounds extreme but it’s not. We had a 30 year depression in the United States from about 1870 to 1900…The Great Depression lasted from about 1929 to 1940. The U.S. is in a depression today.” Well, it's been in the works for

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Canadian banking haven myth exposed

Canadian banking haven myth exposed

"One of the reasons that Canadians (and international commentators, other finance ministers and global financial institutions) buy this Canadian banking fairy tale is the way the government accounts for the money borrowed to support the banks." The sorry spectacle of Conservat

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Get rid of your mortgage, loans, because interest rates set to rise

Get rid of your mortgage, loans, because interest rates set to rise

Get rid of your loans, guys and gals, because we are going into a high interest rate period. Very high. It will be the equivalent of going into the double digit interest rates we had in the 80s where many people threw their house keys at the bank and we had record numbers of ba

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E-cigarettes save lives, money

E-cigarettes save lives, money

"We know that cigarettes have thousands of chemicals in them and we know that they are killing us. They have been for over a hundred years. So now, the e-cig industry comes along with only one or two chemicals in their mixture and people are freaking out over these as well. Whe

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US inches closer to big bank charges

US inches closer to big bank charges

Federal prosecutors are nearing criminal charges against some of the world’s biggest banks, according to lawyers briefed on the matter, a development that could produce the first guilty plea from a major bank in more than two decades. In doing so, prosecutors are confronting

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Canada’s home sales top predictions; why a real estate crash is inevitable

Canada’s home sales top predictions; why a real estate crash is inevitable

“The assurance of relatively low borrowing costs has likely given home buyers confidence while rising home values have kept new listings at a healthy level. Stable employment has provided some assurance to owners and buyers alike.” Our website is back after many months of

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Comparing today’s recession/depression to the 1980 recession

Comparing today's recession/depression to the 1980 recession

"Much like today, Americans were concerned not only with high unemployment but increasing budget deficits in the early 1980s. A September 1983 Gallup poll found that three-fourths of the public agreed that the federal government's budget deficit was a great threat (42%) or some

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Why savers are getting screwed

Why savers are getting screwed

"Without the intervention of economic policymakers, interest rates would be naturally higher. That would increase the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers, but there would be some offsetting economic benefits. Savers are getting screwed by the current monetary policy

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Geithner admits USA bankrupt to US Senate

Geithner admits USA bankrupt to US Senate

"Never in our history has Congress failed to increase the debt limit when necessary. Failure to raise the limit would precipitate a default by the United States. Default would effectively impose a significant and long-lasting tax on all Americans and all American businesses

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World economies on verge of currency revaluations to deal with debt

World economies on verge of currency revaluations to deal with debt

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford Basically what the world central banks are doing is increasing their money by devaluin

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Is Obama the next Mugabe of Zimbabwe?

Is Obama the next Mugabe of Zimbabwe?

"America, Britain, Japan, Germany, France, Sweden, Holland, Norway, Canada and Australia make up the Fishmongers Group and their meeting on Tuesday will deliberate on the state of the inclusive government, debt relief, public finance administration and the controversial economi

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US raiding foreign countries with dollars, not soldiers

US raiding foreign countries with dollars, not soldiers

""The United States is going to China and saying: we want you to commit economic suicide, just like Japan did. We want you to follow the same thing: we want you to revalue your currency, we want you to squeeze your companies, we want you to go bankrupt,” says Michael Hudson,

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stock rally time

Earnings: Is That REALLY What’s Driving The DJIA Higher?
The idea of earnings driving the broad stock market is a myth.
October 22, 2009

By Vadim Pokhlebkin

It’s corporate earnings season again, and everywhere you turn, analysts talk about the influence of earnings on the broad stock market:

  • US Stocks Surge On Data, 3Q Earnings From JPMorgan, Intel (Wall Street Journal)
  • Stocks Open Down on J&J Earnings (Washington Post)
  • European Stocks Surge; US Earnings Lift Mood (Wall Street Journal)

With so much emphasis on earnings, this may come as a shock: The idea of earnings driving the broad stock market is a myth.

When making a statement like that, you’d better have proof. Robert Prechter, EWI’s founder and CEO, presented some of it in his 1999 Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (excerpt; italics added):

Are stocks driven by corporate earnings? In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Goldman Sachs’s Barrie Wigmore, who found that “only 35% of stock price growth [in the 1980s] can be attributed to earnings and interest rates.” Wigmore concludes that all the rest is due simply to changing social attitudes toward holding stocks. Says the Journal, “[This] may have just blown a hole through this most cherished of Wall Street convictions.”

What about simply the trend of earnings vs. the stock market? Well, since 1932, corporate profits have been down in 19 years. The Dow rose in 14 of those years. In 1973-74, the Dow fell 46% while earnings rose 47%. 12-month earnings peaked at the bear market low. Earnings do not drive stocks.

And in 2004, EWI’s monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast added this chart and comment:

Earnings don’t drive stock prices. We’ve said it a thousand times and showed the history that proves the point time and again. But that’s not to say earnings don’t matter. When earnings give investors a rising sense of confidence, they can be a powerful backdrop for a downturn in stock prices. This was certainly true in 2000, as the chart shows. Peak earnings coincided with the stock market’s all-time high and stayed strong right through the third quarter before finally succumbing to the bear market in stock prices. Investors who bought stocks based on strong earnings (and the trend of higher earnings) got killed.

So if earnings don’t drive the stock market’s broad trend, what does? The Elliott Wave Principle says that what shapes stock market trends is how investors collectively feel about the future. Investors’ mood — or social mood — changes before “the fundamentals” reflect that change, which is why trying to predict the markets by following the earnings reports and other “fundamentals” will often leave you puzzled. The chart above makes that clear.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson “Conquer the Crash Collection” Now! You’ll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more. Learn more and get your free 8 lessons here.

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  6. 263,000 "jobs lost" and unemployment rate up to 9.8%Headlines: 263,000 “jobs lost” and unemployment rate up to 9.8%. That’s not good – there goes the “second derivative” argument. Weekly earnings are also down by $1.54, which is bad...

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